2015 American Political Predictions

Categories: Predictions
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Published on: January 1, 2015

Press Conference

Top Three USA Political Predictions for 2015

2014 has drawn to a close, and now we look ahead with hope that our political leaders in 2015 will earn their keep and work together to improve life for all Americans. In that spirit, here are my humble picks for political predictions in 2015. I’ll admit that these are based a little more on hope than on any credible evidence that any of them will happen, but let me know how you feel about these and if you have other predictions you either hope for or expect in 2015.

Prediction #1: Hillary Clinton

This one is too easy. Everyone who is making any prediction, even about things non-political, is predicting that Hillary Clinton will throw her hat in the ring and run for the Democratic ticket in 2016. I agree: this will probably happen. The momentum on both sides has reached a fevered pitch, and if Clinton does not oblige it will actually be devastating for all parts involved, including the GOP. They’ve rolled out more “Stop Hillary” projects than even the pro-Clinton groups could do, and they’re ready to do battle.

A little harder to predict is what will happen after she announces her nomination. Obviously, both camps will go into overdrive, start the spin-engines and all of us poor voters will face inboxes chock full of urgent pleas for political donations; either to help put Hillary in the White House or to stop her. But will the more Progressive side of the left throw their weight behind her, or will they hold back for a candidate closer to their ideals? Will the Tea Party side of the right rally behind a candidate that has a chance against Clinton, or will they turn into squabbling, bickering tribes unsure what issues they really want to push and what issues are mere red herrings for them?

Prediction #2: Compromise

If any one word could explain the political scene for 2013 and 2014, it is stubborn. Granted, both sides are stubborn for a reason; their constituents were leaning more to the extremes and were more impressed with blustering and sound bites than action and solutions. I think that is completely gone, though. Constituents are still leaning to the extreme, but I think they are all learning that a success in standing up for something but a failure to accomplish anything is still a failure.

So, my prediction is politics will begin to follow suit, still making sound bites and posturing for the extremes, but accepting that compromise is important and necessary. Losing a few battles does not mean you can’t win the war, and ultimately the war is to convince voters that we’re moving forward, not stuck in neutral anymore.

There is a serious risk to any politician that holds the line at the expense of any action at all. Neither the GOP nor the Democrats want to be seen as the party of obstructionism. For any failed action to pass a bill, both sides can make an argument that the other side was obstructing, but they need to also make the argument that they did everything they could to ease the obstruction, and that’s hard to fake.

Prediction #3: Foreign Affairs

One things Americans are good at is paying attention to America, but I don’t think the rest of the world is as interested. In the past, America demanded attention, not just for our military (hopefully), but for our broad range of actions: working to try to bring peace, offering an economic stability, providing an opportunity. This past year has shown, at least to me, that we’ve lost “it”. We’ve lost that magic and sparkle in the world, and we’re rapidly becoming that guy that no one wants to invite to the party, but they have to because he has the best place to gather or can provide the best ride to the club.

So where do we go from here? One direction is isolationism, and that’s certainly a track some are pushing for. I think if we really can’t pass an immigration bill, can’t settle on a course in international crisis, and can’t lead the world in anything other than our bloated military, then that’s where we’ll be going. I really hope not. There are a lot of problems in the world, and they’re not just personal problems to Americans, but if we don’t work hard to be part of the international community in addressing outbreaks of disease, military aggression, and the increasingly frequent national disasters around the world, someone else will. Whether it is China, Russia, Canada, the European Union, or some of the many smaller-but-influential countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the ability to really get something done while the rest of the world stands paralyzed with internal strife will put them on a track to lead the world into the future.

So, regardless of what happens, the role of our ambassadors, our diplomats, and our Secretary of State will become immensely important in 2015, hopefully more than our internal confusion.

Do you have a prediction for 2015 in American politics? What would you like to see and what would you hate to see?

Image credit:

Press Conference (note, I know that’s not a picture of anything in the USA, but I chose it because the red/blue sides are so close to what has been going on here)

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